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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|