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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.